Overlord is interesting stuck in a game anime with overpowered character done right, so why is there no sequel so far, and will we ever get Overlord Season 4?
Without the fourth season, we will never learn if Ainz will manage to conquer Yggdrasil’s whole world or someone strong enough will show up to stop him.
The only way to learn that without a sequel would be to read the light novels, but after three seasons, most people will wait and hope that there will be the fourth season.
The problem is that Overlord season 4 didn’t get officially announced yet in 2020, and we don’t know what the chances are that another season of Overlord will get green-lit.
So how can we figure out the probability that Overlord Season 4 will get announced?
I like to examine the chances of anime getting a sequel, and I did that for hundreds of anime series for the past few years. From that, I did learn the best method for that.
The method I use and is 95% accurate is to look at the popularity, sales, and source material. Most of the time that will give you enough information to tell if anime will get another season.
I did the same for Overlord, so if you want to know if there will be the fourth season for Overlord, read this detailed article.
Now let me give you the information I found in 3 short parts and tell you if you should expect that Overlord Season 4 will get announced in 2020.
Let’s start with an in-depth look at the source material.
Part 1: Source Material Information For Overlord Season 4
There are many original anime series, but most series are just using existing source material in 2020. It’s usually either manga, light novels, or even mobile games.
For Overlord, the source material is the light novel.
The most important stuff we need to check is how many light novels the series released so far and if the story will end soon. If the story is ending, that could hurt the prospects of continuation.
Or maybe the story is in the middle for Overlord like for Classroom of The Elite. Ongoing stories have a better chance of getting green-lit, and that’s why the Classroom of The Elite Season 2 has an improved chance of getting announced, for example.
The second most important thing is how many light novels got used in making the first three seasons of the Overlord anime. Maybe there won’t be source material available for a while for a sequel like what happened to No Game No Life Season 2.
How many volumes of Overlord are there?
There are currently 14 light novel volumes of Overlord released in Japan. Overlord also got a manga series based on the light novels. The manga series has 13 books published.
Is Overlord still ongoing?
Overlord light novels are still ongoing. The latest volume by the author Kugane Maruyama got released in Japan on March 12, 2020. The author wrote one volume in 2017, 2018, and 0 in 2019. The author said he plans to finish Overlord with book 17.
Which light novels does the anime of Overlord cover?
Overlord adapted three light novels each season, so volumes one to nine got already used for Madhouse’s anime adaptation. That means light novel volume 10 is where a new season would start if they don’t plan to cover some of the stuff they skipped in the first three seasons.
Conclusion for Source Material There is currently enough source material for another one-cour anime for Overlord in 2020. The series is still ongoing, so that’s a big plus for a sequel chance as well.
Part 2: Sales & Profit Information For Overlord Season 4
Overlord already got three one-cour anime seasons, so you could argue it makes money. The problem is that usually, each sequel makes less and less money.
It’s entirely reasonable for a sequel to drop around 15-25% in terms of profit.
That’s why we need to look at how well the 2nd and 3rd seasons did in terms of profit. If it was a significant drop, it could mean the franchise is no longer profitable, like in the case of Noragami and why there is no Noragami Season 3 announced yet.
Overlord Blu-Ray sales
The first season of Overlord sold a massive 12,500 copies per volume. The second season dropped to just around 7,000 copies, and the third one was about 6,500 copies per volume.
The drop in Blu-Ray is reasonable since people aren’t buying them anymore as they used back in 2015. I would say the numbers are perfect for 2018, even if it’s a 40% drop.
Most series struggle to sell even 2,000 per disk in 2020, which includes gigantic hits like OPM. Yet there will still be One Punch Man Season 3 because of streaming money since that replaced Blu-Ray sales for most series.
Overlord Light Novel sales
The light novel sales may surprise you, but Overlord is the second best selling light novel per volume, just behind Sword Art Online. Each volume sells more than 200,000 copies.
Volume 13 sold more than 235,000 copies, and the latest volume 14 sold more than 195,000 copies before disappearing from the top 10 rankings. Being one of the highest-selling series per volume sounds fantastic, but it’s just one volume per year.
Other series like Wise Man’s Grandchild or Goblin Slayer release 2 to 4 light novels per year. Fun fact is that a single volume of Overlord sells more than both of them combined, so I wonder what that means for Goblin Slayer Season 2 and Kenja no Mago Season 2.
Overlord Merchandise numbers
Around 20 figures are available for Overlord, and most of them are Albedo and a few Ainz plus one for EvilEye, Narberal, and Shalltear. There are also around 250 goods manufactured for Overlord.
For a series with three seasons, I did expect a little more merch and figures for Overlord. For comparison, Konosuba Season 3 didn’t even happen yet, but Konosuba has already more than 1000 merch pieces and 90 figures.
The first season got around 50% more figures and merch than the second and third season did.
Overlord Game sales
There is a mobile game available for Overlord called Mass For The Dead that is playable in Japan and the USA. The game is doing fine with more than 500,000 Dollars revenue worldwide in March 2020 alone.
Overlord never got a real game for PC or console like Accel World or other popular franchises. That’s a shame since it would be awesome to play as Ainz or Demiurge. Not sure if it would help with a sequel since there is still no Accel World season 2.
The above are just the main methods an anime adaptation can generate profit. There are more ways anime makes money. I won’t post all of them here because the rest are usually only a small part of profits.
But here are a few examples for Overlord – Soundtrack (OST), ending/openings songs sales, web radio, mobile game, international license for Crunchyroll, streaming on Crunchyroll and Funimation, manga sales, various collaborations, and more.
Conclusion for Sales & Profit The good news is that profit is still good even after the 3rd season of Overlord. It’s a little bit less than season one. However, it is still more than enough not to be a problem for Kadokawa and the production committee.
Part 3: Popularity Information For Overlord Season 4
We are interested in how the popularity of the Overlord franchise is holding after the third season. That means looking at the official website, social media, Google trends, copies in print, and if there is new merchandise.
Sequels are usually less popular than the first season.
If nothing else, Overlord season one was popular enough to do two additional seasons for it. There are even worse cases like Misfit of Demon King Academy. It looks like the first season of that show had pretty weak popularity. I wonder if there will be The Misfit of Demon King Academy season 2 because it reminds me of Overlord.
Overlord’s official website was last updated in 2019 with news about Overlord’s 14th light novel volume. The official twitter account for this franchise with 103,000 followers tweeted this in April about Overlord anime rebroadcast.
Surprisingly according to Google trends, the 3rd season of Overlord was the most popular so far. It had twice as many searches as the first season that aired in 2015. Sequels usually drop in popularity, so this is awesome to see.
Overlord has 8.000.000 copies in print as of 12/2018. The latest Overlord Volume 14 got published just a few months ago. The light novels are still extremely popular, even if the release speed is a little slow.
New merchandise is usually a great indicator of how well the series is doing. And there were three new figures announced recently. There are also new T-shirts and Keychains to pre-order in 2020 for Overlord.
Conclusion for Popularity The series is still lively, evident from the social media and new merch. Not to mention the promotion with the Isekai Quartet Overlord is getting. I would say the fans are still there for this franchise, even stronger than before.
Will There Be Overlord Season 4
There is no reason that Overlord Season 4 shouldn’t get green-lit. The sales, popularity, and even source material are there. It would be a big surprise for me if Overlord didn’t get another season announced next year or 2022.
Don’t expect it to release in 2020. That is kind of impossible at the current state of the world. I would say Overlord Season 4 release date will be in 2021 or, in the worst case, it will get pushed into 2022.
I did read some rumors that Overlord Season 4 was said to happen at some convention. Still, I would wait for an official announcement about it.
This article will get updated again next year, and we will see if something perhaps changed. In the meantime, you can check the anime-continue category if you are curious about the chances of some other series receiving a continuation.
I hope this article helped you understand the chances of Overlord Season 4 getting announced in 2020.