Will Overlord get a sequel announced soon?
Demiurge would say that waiting for Overlord season 4 is all an elaborate plan to make Nazarick stronger that Ainz came up with, but is it?
Are there even plans to continue the anime, or should you read the light novels?
If you are a big fan of the Overlord series, then you should keep reading because we will answer all the questions in this article together. I did spend a lot of time researching about the franchise, so everything you will learn is supported by reliable data and the latest information that is available in 2020.
Here is some of the information you will learn from this article:
- Is there Overlord Season 4 release date
- How to determine chances of another season for Overlord
- Source Material Information
- Sales Information
- Popularity Information
- Will there be Overlord Season 4
Is There Overlord Season 4 Release Date?
Overlord Season 4 was never officially announced, so there is no official release date for this anime in 2020. That doesn’t mean there won’t be the fourth season of Overlord because that depends on a few factors that this article will answer.
Possibility of Overlord Season 4?
First of all, getting three seasons like Overlord is unusual since I would say 95% of all anime never gets more than two. The fourth season will depend on a few factors we will analyze in this article. Those are how well did the third season sell, how much popularity it was and if there is anything left to adapt.
Once we check those factors, then we will get a better understanding of what the chances of another season are. There can be other reasons that would prevent a sequel, but these are the three primary reasons. Here is a quick explanation of why they are crucial:
Why is the source material necessary
Most anime is just an adaptation of either a manga, light novels, games to promote them to a broader audience. So if there is nothing left to adapt or the source material ended, then it can make a sequel have a much harder time to get green-lit. For Overlord, the source material is the light novels.
Why are the sales and profit important
A single one cour anime like Overlord cost around 2 to 3 million dollars to produce. The production committee that did finance the adaptation needs to see a profit to green-lite more. Most anime sequels usually drop around 20% in sales with each season, so would a season 4 still be profitable?
Why is enough popularity critical for a sequel
Overlord is popular enough to get three seasons, but does the popularity grow or drop with each new season? Overlord Season 4 only makes sense if it can create new fans for the series, or there is enough big fan-base that will support the series going forward.
Now let’s quickly examine each one of these essential factors for Overlord, and that will give us a clue what the chances are that we will get Overlord season 4 announcement soon.
Source Material Information
How many light novel volumes did the first three seasons of Overlord used? Is there anything left to use for the fourth season of the anime? Did the series already end, or it’s still ongoing in 2020? That’s the information we need from the source material.
How many volumes of Overlord are there?
There are currently 14 light novel volumes of Overlord released in Japan. Overlord also got a manga series based on the light novels. The manga series has 13 books published.
Is Overlord still ongoing?
Overlord light novels are still ongoing. The latest volume by the author Kugane Maruyama was published in Japan on March 12, 2020. The author wrote one volume in 2017, 2018, and 0 in 2019. The author said he plans to finish Overlord with book 17.
Which light novels does the anime of Overlord cover?
Each season of Overlord adapted three light novels, so volumes one to nine were already used for the anime adaptation by Madhouse. That means book 10 is where a new season would start if they don’t plan to cover some of the stuff they skipped in the first three seasons.
Conclusion for Source Material: There is currently enough source material for another one cour anime for Overlord in 2020. The series is still ongoing for now, so that’s a big plus for a sequel chances as well.
Sales & Profit Information
I said above that each season drops in sales, so it will be interesting to see how well did Overlord do. An average drop would be around 20% each season in terms of profit from Blu-Ray and Merchandise.
Overlord Blu-Ray sales
The first season of Overlord sold a massive 12,500 copies per volume. The second season dropped to just around 7,000 copies, and the third one was about 6,500 copies per volume.
First of all, the drop in Blu-Ray is reasonable since people aren’t buying them anymore as they used back in 2015. I would say the numbers are perfect for 2018, even if it’s a 40% drop. Most series struggle to sell even 2k in 2020.
Overlord Light Novel sales
This may surprise you, but Overlord is the second best selling light novel per volume just behind Sword Art Online. Each volume sells more than 200,000 copies. Volume 13 sold more than 235,000 copies, and the latest volume 14 sold more than 195,000 copies before disappearing from to p10 rankings.
Being one of the highest-selling series per volume sound fantastic, but it’s just one volume per year. Most other series are releasing 2-4 books each year. Anyway, the sales of light novels are excellent.
Overlord Merchandise numbers
Around 20 figmas available for Overlord, and the majority of the are Albedo and a few Ainz plus one for EvilEye, Narberal, and Shalltear. There are also around 250 goods manufactured for Overlord.
For a series with three seasons, I did expect a little bit more of merch and figmas for Overlord. The first season got around 50% more figmas and merch than the second, and the third one did.
Overlord Game sales
There is a mobile game available for Overlord called Mass For The Dead that is playable in both Japan and the USA. It looks like the game is doing fine with more than 500,000 Dollars revenue worldwide in March 2020 alone.
The above are just the main methods an anime adaptation can generate profit, but there are more ways anime makes money. I won’t post all of them here because the rest are usually only a small piece of the profits.
But here are a few examples for Overlord – Soundtrack (OST), ending/openings songs sales, web radio, mobile game, international license for Crunchyroll, streaming on Crunchyroll and Funimation, manga sales, various collaborations, and more.
Conclusion for Sales & Profit: The good news is that profit is still significant even after the 3rd season of Overlord. It’s a little bit less than season one, but still more than enough to not be a problem for Kadokawa and the production committee to consider Overlord Season 4.
How is the popularity of the Overlord franchise holding after the third season? Are the official social media still active and promoting the series? Is there any new merchandise planned for the series? How many copies in print do the light novels have?
The official website for Overlord was last updated in 2019 with news about the 14th light novel volume of Overlord. And the official twitter account for this franchise with 100,000 followers did tweet this in April about Overlord anime re-broadcast.
Surprisingly according to Google trends, the 3rd season of Overlord was the most popular so far. It had twice as many searches as the first season that aired in 2015. Sequels usually drop in popularity, so this is awesome to see.
Overlord has 8.000.000 copies in print as of 12/2018. The latest Overlord Volume 14 got published just two months ago. The light novels are still extremely popular, even if the release speed is a little slow.
New merchandise is usually a great indicator of how well the series is doing. And there were three new figmas announced recently. There are also new T-shirts and Key-chains to pre-order in 2020 for Overlord.
Conclusion for Popularity: The series is still lively, and that is obvious from the social media and new merch. Not to mention the promotion with the Isekai Quartet Overlord is getting. So, in short, the third season just made Overlord even more popular.
Will There Be Overlord Season 4
There is no reason that Overlord Season 4 shouldn’t be announced. The sales, popularity, and even source material are there. It would be a big surprise for me if Overlord didn’t get another season announced this year or early next year.
But don’t expect it to release in 2020. That is kind of impossible at the current state of the world. I would say Overlord Season 4 release date will be either January or July 2021.
I did read some rumors that Overlord Season 4 was said to be planned on some convention, but I would wait for an official announcement about it. Similar rumors happened to Accel World, and we never got Accel World Season 2.